Baghdad Election Booms

This evening I heard small-arms fire (like AK-47s) and explosions (probably RPGs) in the distance as I walked to my CHU.  Over the last several days, we've seen embassy bombings and a massacre.  It seems as though there is mischief afoot.

Personally, I am glad this is happening now.  Here's why:  We are still here.  I would wager that the recent spate of violence is directly related to the recent elections and the Iraqi people's empowerment of Ahmed Allawi.  This did two things.  First, it emboldened Al-Qaeda, which now have another Sunni (and former ba'athist) on the cusp of power.  I don't think Allawi is a bad guy, as he pissed off Saddam pretty good, but he is likely tied through family and tribal relations to some bad people.  Additionally, as he takes over the PM slot, he will inevitably replace current officials with those he prefers-- and those officials are more likely to be tied to Sunni extremist groups than the current officials.  This all adds up to a political climate that might embolden Sunni groups, and I think that's what we're seeing now.

Now, the other side of the coin has the Shi'a contingent (like Nouri Al-Maliki and his contingent) not wanting to relinquish power to the newly-elected government.  So there will be shenanigans from the Shi'a side of the house and its Iranian supporters as Maliki tries to create either a) a reason for him to stay in power, or b) um... another reason for him to stay in power.

This is why I am glad this is happening now.  If Maliki had won, we would probably not be seeing the recent increase in violence.  The long-term effect, however, would be that Iraq would have to go through its first eventual transfer of power on its own and later.  Historically, transfers of power have been a hard thing for middle-eastern countries to deal with.  See: Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Afghanistan, etc.  So for Iraq to confront this election and transfer of power now, when the US is still around to provide a stabilizing influence, is a very good thing over the long term.

There's nothing saying that the political situation won't vaporize when Allawi gets voted out of office in 4 years, but it's a lot more likely to go smoothly if we establish a positive precedent now.  The confidence of the people in the process will go a long way to making this a permanent fixture.  Then, in 20 years, we can look at this moment, right now, and say it was a defining point in Iraq's prosperity.